▶️ Oregon governor no longer a ‘toss-up?’ National forecaster moves to ‘Lean’


For weeks, two national, non-partisan election forecasters has listed Oregon’s three-way race for governor as a “toss-up.” One of them has moved.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics says it is now calling the gubernatorial race as “Lean Democratic.”

That’s an indication they believe Democrat Tina Kotek has the edge over Republican Christine Drazan and unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson.

However, it’s not a solid prediction that Kotek will win. Also, Sabato’s has stronger ratings of “Likely Democratic” and “Safe Democratic” — which it’s not listing this race as.

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Cook Political Report, the other major election forecaster, still calls it a toss-up.

In late September, Cook Political said Johnson’s presence in the race gives Drazan a path to the governor’s mansion. Democrats have warned that Johnson is a spoiler that could pull votes from Kotek. 


Oregon has not elected a Republican governor in 35 years.

Just last week, both outlets moved Oregon’s 5th District congressional race between Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner and GOP candidate Lori Chavez-DeRemer as a “Lean Republican.



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