The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has released their predictions for the 2024 tax kicker. They estimate it to be $3.9 billion – a record amount. The exact amount will be finalized this fall.
Based on their projections and Oregon’s current income distribution, the typical Oregon taxpayer will receive $790 on their tax returns in 2024. They state it is important to remember that the kicker is paid out the same way tax revenue comes in – meaning the more you earn, the larger your kicker.
They estimate on average, that the top 1% of earners will receive $42,000 while the bottom 20% of incomes will receive $60.
The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis says the economic impact of the kicker can differ depending on what is being measured. If you just look at numbers, the $3.9 billion increase in disposable personal income would be a boost of about 1.3%, however based on consumer spending and business revenue, the impact is likely to be less than that.
To put simply, lower income households are more likely to spend a large percentage of their kicker, while higher income households are more likely to save a large percentage. Since a majority of the kicker will go to higher income households, the economic impact will not be as large.
The final kicker figures will not be certified until fall of 2023.