OHSU forecast says state appears to be nearing COVID hospitalization peak

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The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Oregon appears to be nearing a peak of a little over 1,200 people over the next few days and will begin to drop by next weekend, according to the latest forecast from Oregon Health & Science University.

The new update reflects the fact that Oregonians have stepped up on behalf of their neighbors and communities to curtail the spread of the highly contagious omicron variant and thereby reduce the number of people with COVID-19 crowding into hospitals at the same time.

The update projects a peak of 1,220 people hospitalized by Feb. 6 — about 330 fewer and five days later than last week’s forecast.

Hospitals across the state will remain severely strained for the next week.

“The current number of hospitalized patients in Oregon is at near-record levels,” said Peter Graven, Ph.D., director of the OHSU Office of Advanced Analytics. “Hospitals have very little space right now to handle new cases of COVID-19 on top of what they’re already dealing with. Our hospitals and health care workers remain under severe strain.”

Nonetheless, the new forecast offers a glimmer of good news, assuming Oregonians continue to stick with proven measures that have demonstrably reduced the spread of infection compared with other U.S. states.

St. Charles on Monday reported it had 70 COVID patients, down from the mid-80s last week. 

The forecast reflects data showing the average Oregonian has maintained relatively high rates of masking, refrained from large indoor gatherings, and reduced activities such as visiting bars, restaurants and shopping.

You can read the full report here.

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