OHA reports 3 more COVID deaths, 314 new cases

COVID-19 has claimed three more lives in Oregon, raising the state’s death toll to 563, the Oregon Health Authority reported Friday.

The OHA reported 314 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19, bringing the state total to 34,163.

The new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases reported today are in the following counties: Baker (1), Benton (8), Clackamas (15), Clatsop (3), Columbia (1), Coos (2), Deschutes (4), Douglas (3), Hood River (1), Jackson (13), Jefferson (1), Josephine (8), Klamath (4), Lane (39), Lincoln (1), Linn (6), Malheur (12), Marion (37), Morrow (1), Multnomah (59), Polk (5), Umatilla (12), Wasco (2), Washington (66) and Yamhill (10).

Deschutes County has reported 880 cases and 12 deaths; 761 patients have recovered as of Thursday, the latest data available.

Crook County has reported 63 cases and one death.

Jefferson County has reported 555 cases and eight deaths.

St. Charles on Friday reported five COVID patients; none are in the ICU.

SCHOOL METRIC WATCH:

Each day we will be posting the Sunday-Saturday running tally of COVID cases in Deschutes County* as they relate to the weekly metrics many are watching for kids to return to school.

Counties need to have 30 or fewer cases per 100,000 people to bring kids back in grades K-3. With about 200,000 residents, Deschutes County’s target number is 60 or fewer total cases.

So far this week, Deschutes County has reported 60 cases since Sunday.

* The final weekly tally reported by the OHA may differ based on a variety of factors.

OHA releases updated modeling report

The OHA on Friday also released its latest modeling report.

The model offers three scenarios, assuming 4,500 tests per day for each.

The optimistic scenario assumes a 5-percentage-point increase on Sept. 5, but attributes increases in diagnosed cases after Sept. 15 to a decline in testing.

  • Under this scenario by Oct. 22, new infections would increase from 680 to 800, resulting in about 270 daily cases. Severe cases – those requiring hospitalization – would increase to 24, and a reproduction rate would be 1.04, meaning that someone with the virus is passing it to more than one person.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a 10-percentage-point increase in transmission after Sept. 5 and attributes some of higher cases to be the result of increased transmission rather than a lack of testing.

  • Under this scenario, by Oct. 22, there would be approximately 900 new infections and about 300 new daily cases, with eight more severe cases and a reproduction rate of 1.17.

The moderate scenario assumes a 7-percentage-point increase from Sept. 5, attributing fewer of the increased diagnosed cases to increased transmission.

  • Under this scenario, by Oct. 22, new daily cases would increase by 120, with one additional severe case and a reproduction rate of 1.12. Based on COVID-19 data through Sept. 24 the model is consistent with increases in transmission throughout May, followed by decreases in transmission through late July and declining cases in August.

As has been shown since the beginning of the pandemic in Oregon, these trends remain very sensitive to small changes in transmission levels.

Model results should be interpreted with caution, given these recent reductions in testing and uncertainty behind various COVID-19 model assumptions.

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