Two national, non-partisan election ratings agencies have changed their forecast for next week’s election in Oregon’s 5th U.S. congressional district.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball out of the University of Virginia now label the race between Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner as “Lean Republican.”
The district, redrawn after the 2020 Census, includes parts of Deschutes and Jefferson counties, including Bend.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, wrote the following:
“The open-seat Oregon gubernatorial race is a very real Republican pickup opportunity, as are 3 open House seats where Joe Biden won by between 9-13 points. OR-5, the least blue of the 3 seats, has become a real headache for Democrats, as it appears that former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) has an edge over 2018 OR-2 nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D), who ousted Rep. Kurt Schrader (D, OR-5) by primarying him from the left earlier this year. Democratic outside groups have stopped spending in the district, which is more competitive than the Biden +9 topline would indicate — Republican gubernatorial nominees won it in both 2016 and 2018.”
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Dave Wasserman, who follows the House for Cook Political Report, writes that he thinks Democrats would have had a better chance if Schrader had won the primary.
He also noted that McLeod-Skinner has outraised Chavez-DeRemer 2-to-1, but adds that “Democrats’ House Majority PAC has shifted its ad buys to other seats.”
Central Oregon Daily News spoke to Kondik in late September when he had the race listed as a toss-up.
Both Cook and Sabato’s still has Oregon’s gubernatorial race — between Democrat Tina Kotek, Republican Christine Drazan and unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson — as a toss-up.
RELATED: Full list of Central Oregon ballot dropboxes | Deadline: Nov. 8 at 8:00 p.m.
