Oregon 5th District already called a toss-up in 2024 by election forecaster

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

We’re still 21 months until the next election for Congress and a national forecaster is already predicting that Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer will be in a close race just as she was in 2022.

Cook Political Report has put out its forecast for House and Senate races in the next cycle and says Oregon’s 5th District is currently a toss-up — even though we don’t yet know who the freshman congresswoman will be facing.

DeRemer defeated Democratic opponent Jamie McLeod-Skinner in November. It took several days of vote counting to determine the outcome. The day before that election, Cook rated it a Lean Republican.

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Cook has three levels of forecast rankings of races considered competitive or potentially competitive:

  • Toss-up: Most-competitive; either party could win
  • Lean: Competitive, but one party has an advantage
  • Likely: Not considered competitive yet, but could become so later

Cook also has Oregon’s 6th District, represented by Democrat Andrea Salinas, as a Lean Democrat at this point.

No other Oregon 

House elections happen every two years.

Neither of Oregon’s two U.S. Senate seats will be contested in 2024. Senate terms are every six years. Sen. Ron Wyden was just re-elected and Sen. Jeff Merkley is up in 2026.


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